Hybrid Regimes

Intro to Comparative Politics (Guest Lecture)

Georgiy Syunyaev

g.syunyaev@vanderbilt.edu

November 7, 2025

Plan


  • What are hybrid regimes?
  • Typology and global patterns
  • Competitive autocracies
  • Why mimic democracy / Effects
  • Power-sharing and stability
  • Spin dictators

What are hybrid regimes?


  • Sit between liberal (full) democracies and closed autocracies
  • Elections and other checks and balances exist \(\Leftarrow\) minimal difinition of democracy
  • Civil liberties and freedom of expression are severely constrained
  • Include “grey zone” and competitive (electoral) autocracies (Levitsky & Way, 2010; V-Dem, 2025)

Typology (V-Dem, 2025)


Regimes over time (V-Dem, 2025)


Competitive autocracies (Levitsky & Way, 2010)


  • Formal democratic rules + systematic abuse of the state to skew competition
  • Opposition can campaign and sometimes win sub-national offices or seats in legislatures
  • National arena is tilted; incumbents rarely lose without shocks
  • Distinct from single-party hegemonies: real competition but unlevel playing field

Formal democratic rules (Meng, Paine & Powell, 2023)

How incumbents tilt the playing field?


  • Media capture: ownership concentration, self-censorship
  • Mobilize the state: public employment, social benefits, turnout machines
  • Rewrite (legal) rules: electoral rules, districting, media/NGO laws
  • Harassment: selective enforcement, tax probes, court cases
  • Vote environment: access barriers, voter intimidation & vote fraud
  • Fragment opposition: legal bars, selective prosecution, sharing of spoils

Media consolidation

https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/02/13/i-cant-do-my-job-journalist/systematic-undermining-media-freedom-hungary

Using state resources

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-raft-pre-election-spending-swell-budget-2022-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Legalism

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69007465

Vote fraud

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2021/09/20/flipping-moscow

Why autocrats mimic democracy? (Brancati, 2014)


  • Cooptation: distribute spoils, careers, policy influence
  • Information: learn about opposition strength & public sentiment
  • Legitimation: signal competence & popular backing
  • Constraint management: create apparent checks to reduce risk of revolt

Effects of mimicking democracy


  • Elections/legislatures can allow stable power-sharing

  • Control over playing field can lead to erosion of or low democratic norms

  • But it can also backfire – serve as focal points for opposition

  • Net effect can depend on

    1. control of information
    2. elite co-optation
    3. shocks and economic performance (!)

Power-sharing is hard (Meng, Paine & Powell, 2023)




  • Many threats to rulers: coups, elite splits, mass uprisings

  • Commitment problem: promises to elites aren’t credible ex post

  • Power-sharing deals need both spoil-sharing and enforcement

Hybrid regimes: transitory or stable?


  • Linkage to the West (density of ties)
  • Leverage (Western ability/willingness to punish abuses)
  • Incumbent organizational power (parties, state, business networks)
  • Economic structure & resources (rents cushion shocks)

Spin dictators (Guriev & Treisman, 2022)

  • Even closed (full) autocracies pretend to be hybrid or competitive

  • Prefer persuasion & manipulation over mass terror

  • Plausible deniability and democratic veneers (elections, courts, mass media)

  • Choose targeted repressions over mass repressions

  • Aim to maintain popularity, attract investment, avoid sanctions

Spin dictators are also unstable



  • Crisis triggers: war, large protests, elite defection, economic collapse

  • Toolkit shifts toward bans, arrests, force, comprehensive censorship

  • Some regimes hybridize: spin + selective intimidation

Takeaways


  • Hybrid regimes are common and could be durable

  • Competitive autocracies: real competition, tilted rules

  • Autocrats adopt democratic institutions to co-opt, learn and legitimize

  • Power‑sharing requires credible enforcement, not just promises

  • More recently, spin dictators try to mimic hybrid regimes and focus on manipulation

References


  • Brancati, Dawn. 2014. “Democratic Authoritarianism: Origins and Effects.” Annual Review of Political Science 17: 313–326.
  • Guriev, Sergei & Daniel Treisman. 2022. Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Levitsky, Steven & Lucan A. Way. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Meng, Anne; Jack Paine & Robert Powell. 2023. “Authoritarian Power Sharing: Concepts, Mechanisms, and Strategies.” Annual Review of Political Science 26: 153–173.
  • V‑Dem Institute. 2025. Democracy Report 2025.